The viability of populations and communities is one of the key goals of conservation, but one of the hardest to assess. A constraint on our ability to incorporate the persistence of biodiversity into conservation and planning is the difficulty in measuring or even estimating it, due to its complexity. One of the few means of quantifying persistence is to approximate the extinction risk of each species within the ecosystem, by performing a population viability analysis (PVA). Our research examines ways to deal with critical issues in conservation such as minimum population sizes, optimal landscape configurations and decision-making in management.

McCarthy, M. A., D. A. Keith, J. Tietjen, M. A. Burgman, M. Maunder, L. L. Master, B. W. Brook, G. M. Mace, H. P. Possingham, R. A. Medellín, S. Andelman, H. Regan, T. J. Regan and M. Ruckelshaus (2004) Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement. Acta Oecologica 26:67-74 pdf

Ball, S. J., D. B. Lindenmayer and H. P. Possingham (2003) The predictive accuracy of population viability analysis: a test using data from two small mammal species in a fragmented landscape. Biodiversity and Conservation 12:2393-2413 pdf

Lindenmayer, D. B., H. P. Possingham, R. C. Lacy, M. A. McCarthy and M. L. Pope (2003) How accurate are population models? Lessons from landscape-scale tests in a fragmented system. Ecology Letters 6:41-47 pdf

McCarthy, M. A., S. J. Andelman and H. P. Possingham (2003) Reliability of relative predictions in population viability analysis. Conservation Biology 17:1-9 pdf

Haight, R. G., B. Cypher, P. A. Kelly, S. Phillips, H. P. Possingham, K. Ralls, A. M. Starfield, P. J. White and D. Williams (2002) Optimizing habitat protection using demographic models of population viability. Conservation Biology 16:1386-1397 pdf

Possingham, H. P., D. B. Lindenmayer and G. N. Tuck (2002) Decision theory for population viability analysis. Pages 470-489 in S. R. Beissinger and D. R. McCullough, editors. Population Viability Analysis. University of Chicago Press, Chicago

Wilcox, C. and H. P. Possingham (2002) Do life history traits affect the accuracy of diffusion approximation for mean time to extinction? Ecological Applications 12:1163-1179 pdf

Burgman, M. A., H. P. Possingham, A. J. Lynch, D. A. Keith, M. A. McCarthy, S. D. Hopper, W. L. Drury, J. A. Passioura and R. J. Devries (2001) A Method For Setting The Size Of Plant Conservation Target Areas. Conservation Biology 15:603-616 pdf

Coulson, T., G. M. Mace, E. Hudson and H. P. Possingham (2001) The use and abuse of population viability analysis. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 16:219-221 pdf

Lindenmayer, D. B., M. A. McCarthy, H. P. Possingham and S. Legge (2001) A simple landscape-scale test of a spatially explicit population model: patch occupancy in fragmented south-eastern Australian forests. Oikos 92:445-458 pdf

Lindenmayer, D. B., I. R. Ball, H. P. Possingham, M. A. McCarthy and M. Pope (2001) A landscape scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis. Journal of Applied Ecology 38:36-48 pdf

McCarthy, M. A., D. B. Lindenmayer and H. P. Possingham (2001) Assessing spatial PVA models of arboreal marsupials using significance tests and bayesian statistics. Biological Conservation 98:191-200 pdf

McCarthy, M. A., H. P. Possingham, J. R. Day and A. J. Tyre (2001) Testing the accuracy of population viability analysis. Conservation Biology 15:1030-1038 pdf

Possingham, H. P., D. B. Lindenmayer and M. A. McCarthy (2001) Population Viability Analysis. Encyclopedia of Biodiversity. Academic Press

Burgman, M. A. and H. P. Possingham (2000) Population viability analysis for conservation: the good, the bad and the undescribed. Pages 97-112 in A. G. Young and G. M. Clarke, editors. Genetics, demography, and viability of fragmented populations. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge pdf

Lindenmayer, D. B. and H. P. Possingham (1996) Ranking conservation and timber management options for Leadbeater's Possum in southeastern Australia using Population Viability Analysis. Conservation Biology 10:235-251 pdf

Lindenmayer, D. B. and H. P. Possingham (1996) Modelling the inter-relationships between habitat patchiness, dispersal capability and metapopulation persistence of the endangered species, Leadbeater's possum, in south-eastern Australia. Landscape Ecology 11:79-105 pdf

Lindenmayer, D. B., M. A. Burgman, A. R., R. Lacy and H. P. Possingham (1995) A review of the generic computer programs ALEX, RAMAS/Space and VORTEX, for modelling the viability of wildlife metapopulations. Ecological Modelling 82:161-174 pdf

Possingham, H. P. and I. Davies (1995) ALEX: A model for the viability analysis of spatially strucutured populations. Biological Conservation 73:143-150 pdf

Possingham, H. P., D. B. Lindenmayer, T. W. Norton and I. Davies (1994) Metapopulation viability analysis of the greater glider Petauroides volans in a wood production area. Biological Conservation 70:343-353 pdf

Possingham, H. P., D. B. Lindenmayer and T. W. Norton (1993) A framework for the improved management of threatened species based on PVA. Pacific Conservation Biology 1:39-45