Uncertainty and Decision Making - Spatial Ecology Lab, The University of Queensland

The information we use for making decisions is inevitably uncertain, yet decisions have to be made. In conservation in particular, information is typically poor and data scarce. Therefore we require methods for making decisions that take into consideration the uncertainties that exist in our information rather than ignoring it. In this way robust management decisions can be identified. Our research group and colleagues in Australia and overseas are at the forefront of developing and applying new methods for making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Some of the methods we use include: Information-gap decision theory Bayesian statistics and modelling methods Stochastic dynamic programming (sdp) Partially observable markov decision processes (pomdp) Matrix sensitivity and elasticity analyses Perturbation sensitivity analysis We apply these methods to a range of problems and systems, including: Conservation planning and reserve design Weed eradication and management Conservation and management decisions based on population models
People	Maria Beger, Michael Bode, Josie Carwardine, Eve McDonald-Madden, Hugh Possingham, Kerrie Wilson
Collaborators	Yakov Ben-Haim, Technion, Israel Ben Halpern, NCEAS Helen Regan, San Diego State Mick McCarthy, ARCUE Brendan Wintle, Environmental Science, University of Melbourne Tracey Regan, NOAA
Links and downloads	nil
Key references	Nicholson, E. & H. P. Possingham (in press) Planning for the persistence of multiple species under uncertainty: an application of info-gap decision theory. Ecological Applications. pdf Halpern, B. S., H. M. Regan, H. P. Possingham and M. A. McCarthy (2006) Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design. Ecology Letters 9:2-11 pdf. McCarthy, M. A., C. J. Thompson and H. P. Possingham (2005) Theory for Designing Nature Reserves for Single Species. The American Naturalist 165:250-257 pdf Regan, T. J., M. Burgman, M. A. McCarthy, L. L. Master, D. A. Keith, G. M. Mace and S. Andelman (2005) The Consistency of Extinction Risk Classification Protocols. Conservation Biology 19:1969-1977 pdf Wilson, K. A., M. I. Westphal, H. P. Possingham and J. Elith (2005) Sensitivity of conservation planning to different approaches to using predicted species distribution data. Biological Conservation 122:99-112 pdf Meir, E., S. Andelman and H. P. Possingham (2004) Does conservation planning matter in a dynamic and uncertain world? Ecology Letters 7:615-622 pdf